Written Early Enough to Look Ridiculous Later

The next paragraphs are taken from an email to a couple of great old friends. I post them knowing full well that this kind of topical stuff usually looks ridiculous in hindsight. But that's one of the reasons for the post - indeed, for the whole project - maybe it can help with the twin problems of humility and short-sightedness.

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I am going to vote for John McCain enthusiastically. Mrs. Palin knows who she is and has a firm grasp of fundamental values - reminding me, at this point in the candidacy, of Harry Truman when he ran with FDR in 1944. For them to win at this point, however, would take a miracle.

The miracles have been running in the opposite direction, especially the fact that this final liquidation stage of the 90-year Kondratieff wave is breaking between nomination and election. No Republican could survive that, absent a miracle.

Obama has done one thing - run a brilliant, ruthless campaign. Look at the choices he has made with impunity - breaking his pledge on public financing, going 180 degrees on gun ownership, refusing to reveal any records of his history while at Occidental, Columbia, and very little about Harvard, among many examples. I can predict with some confidence that the information he has concealed would have made a difference in the election.

I am reminded of the revelations that Kennedy had Addison's disease, or that Sorenson and others wrote Profiles in Courage, for which Kennedy received a Pulitzer prize. I am still very curious about the connection between William Ayers and Dreams From My Father.

Running and winning a brilliant, ruthless campaign for President ain't chopped liver. I don't think it outweighs McCain's achievements and record, but oddly I am left where I began. I am going to vote for JMcC, and hope he wins, but I am not terrified of the probability that Obama will win. Pretty much for the reason that the pendulum always swings, and usually in proportion to the previous swing.

The only thing that worries me, a little, is the idea that we are in Russia and about to elect Kerensky - that we are about to get into a period of extreme instability and that Obama will not be able to stand up to truly radical voices that will emerge. I would much rather we had John McCain at that point. But I think it's a long shot.

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