Dragons

Back in the old days of US v. USSR I used to wonder if it was their economic failures, alone, that made the difference. The sensibility - kind of articulated by an old Robin Williams vehicle, "Moscow on the Hudson" - was that the real failure of the USSR was its failure to deliver consumer goods. There was political and artistic repression, to be sure. But since Khrushchev, the people had found ways to read Ayn Rand and listen to Charlie Parker. The real problems were that they had to stand in line for bread and couldn't buy blue jeans.

Which took me to the next question, and I asked it many times: what if the communists learned how to make economics work? Would that ensure the triumph of the left?

The USSR didn't figure it out, of course. But has China? Has its ability to deliver goods, jobs, infrastructure, et cetera overwhelmed the public desire for a free plebiscite once in a while?

I think the answer is yes.

But that doesn't mean that China will sail bumplessly into the future. They have too much history of political violence. I think the violence, when it comes, will not be because people want a vote and a free press. The impelling forces will be darker - maybe nationalism, Han racism, regionalism - than a democratic instinct. I think - although I have no proof - that the bourgeois democrats have been bought off, and others will make the next revolution against the emperor.