Hubris-O-Rama

Can't help noting that I wrote this about a year ago, re Afghanistan.

I would focus on how to climb down from this war and make a graceful exit. Just as we can tolerate no new 9/11, we cannot ever be in a position of evacuating our embassy on short notice and leaving supporters behind to be slaughtered, as we did in Saigon in 1975. Avoidance of that should be the objective in Afghanistan.

How? We find a reason to declare Al-Qaeda crushed and declare victory. How that? Well, finally killing Bin Laden or finding his remains would be nice. And if not that, I bet there is something else the Pashtuns and/or the Pakis could serve up if they were offered the right mixture of money and guns (in their hands, at their heads, or both). Whatever it is, we follow it up with a nice parade through Kabul, us and our allies, and we're gone. With visas and a great evacuation plan for our local friends, who I'm sure will make fine Americans.

Not exactly a prediction, but it does seem to kind of resonate today.  Killing Bin Laden could make a good pretext for exiting a bad war.  Hmm...   There is a conspiracy theory in there somewhere.

I heard once about a woman who used to write to her husband who was at the front during WWII.  Her predictions were so insightful that the FBI paid her a call to make sure she wasn't a spy.  Who knows if true, but I always liked the idea that you could just read the papers, apply your brain, and be a kind of soothsayer.

But you can't predict Black Swans, almost by definition.  If the next big thing is a Black Swan all we can hope is to be nimble.  And maybe stock some soup and water in the basement,